Lambdia

Inclusion exclusion principle

2 articles

A Double Knock-Out Is Worth Less Than Half the Two One-Sided Options

The sharp statement is stronger than the usual one: on every path, missing the ceiling plus missing the floor counts the paths that miss both exactly twice, so the pair is twice the double plus the value of the one-sided survivors. That is a polynomial identity in indicators, so it holds under every pricing measure with no volatility anywhere, and one half is the tight bound. In a worked instance the pair is 10.317 against a double of 1.494, and the fastest refutation of the trap is that the pair exceeds the plain call with no barriers at all.

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683 Chocolate Chips for 100 Cookies, and Why 500 Is a Coin Flip

Drop chips at random into dough, cut it into a hundred cookies, and ask how many chips guarantee no bare cookie nine times out of ten. Five hundred chips, five per cookie on average, works about half the time. Inclusion-exclusion pins the answer at 683, a closed form you can solve on a whiteboard agrees, and the coupon collector's mean of 518.7 is the sophisticated wrong answer.

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