Lambdia

Gamblers ruin

1 article

A Dollar at the Barrier, Seventy-Five Cents Today

A share sits at 75, the rate is zero, and a perpetual claim pays one dollar the first time the price ever touches 100. It is worth exactly 75 cents, and no volatility number is needed to say so. The reflex answer of a dollar assumes the barrier is always reached, which a price with a floor at zero never promises: a quarter of the paths fade away without paying anything.

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