Lambdia

Linear approximation

4 articles

The Trade That Sees the Curve and Not the Level

Buying two-year notes because you expect the curve to steepen is a position on the level of rates: the same correct view loses two dollars if the steepening arrives with everything rising. Matching the two legs on dollar duration removes the parallel part of the move as an algebraic identity, so half a point of widening pays four dollars whatever the level does. Matching market value as well is impossible with only two bonds and needs a third leg carrying no duration, and on a full cash-flow reprice the level survives at second order, worth 0.07 against a four-dollar profit at fifty basis points.

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Five Hundred Contracts Is Right, and Face Value Is Not the Reason

Cutting a hundred million of a thirty-year bond down to fifty takes five hundred futures, and the usual arithmetic of fifty million over a hundred thousand lands there only because the contract's duration per dollar of face happens to match the bond's. What a hedge matches is dollars per basis point: 56,288.92 against 112.5778. Hold a thirty-year zero instead and the same job needs 1,234 contracts, while five hundred three-month contracts would cover 22.2 per cent of it.

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A Quarter Point of Someone Else's Curve, and Twenty-Eight Dollars Gone

An eight per cent thirty-year bond at par loses 27.49 dollars when its yield rises 25 basis points, and its yield moves because the principal is collateralised in United States Treasuries. The answer that circulates, about thirty-five dollars, needs a duration of fifteen, and a par bond at an eight per cent yield cannot have one: its modified duration is its own annuity factor, capped at 12.5 at any maturity whatsoever. The pass-through, the only soft number in the chain, is swept from an eighth to a half.

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451.67 From One Division, and Always a Shade Too High

The anchor is 45 squared, the shortfall is 1500, and one division by 900 lands on 1355/3 = 451.6667 against a true 451.66359. The estimate overshoots by exactly h squared over four a squared, which is 25/9 in the square here, so the error has a known sign as well as a known size. The article carries the bracket that names 452 as the nearest integer, one Newton step to nine figures, and what happens when the anchor is chosen too far away.

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