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Binomial proportion confidence interval

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Three Points from a Thousand People, and the Two Roundings That Cancel

The 95 percent margin on a proportion is almost exactly 1 over the square root of the sample size, because p(1-p) is flat enough near its peak to call a quarter and 1.96 is close enough to 2, and those two roundings are reciprocal so they annihilate. At N = 1000 the shortcut gives 3.16 percent against an exact 3.04, and it always errs on the conservative side. Reporting one standard error instead, 1.55 percent, describes a 68 percent interval rather than a 95 percent one.

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