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Subfields of statistics

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100 year flood68 95 99 7 ruleA logical calculus of the ideas immanent in nervous activityAblationAction model learningActivation functionActor partner interdependence modelActuarial control cycleActuarial credentialing and examsActuarial notationActuarial present valueActuarial reservesActuarial society of south africa hiv aids modelsAdalineAdamic adar indexAdaptive resonance theoryAffinity analysisAge at riskAge stratificationAgent miningAlgebraic statisticsAlopexAlpha beta filterAlterego+ 537 más
Probability & StatisticsGradoAnálisis11 min

Game One Is Worth 31.25 of Your 100, and Nobody Asked Who Is Better

A holding pays $200 if a team wins four games first, you must take a symmetric position on every game, and committing the whole hundred to game one produces the right payoffs a week too early. Backward induction on the lattice fixes the amount at half the gap between the two successor values, $31.25. The same number is 5/16 of the holding, which is the chance the other six games split three each, and no win probability appears anywhere in the derivation.

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Probability & StatisticsGradoExplicación10 min

Three Points from a Thousand People, and the Two Roundings That Cancel

The 95 percent margin on a proportion is almost exactly 1 over the square root of the sample size, because p(1-p) is flat enough near its peak to call a quarter and 1.96 is close enough to 2, and those two roundings are reciprocal so they annihilate. At N = 1000 the shortcut gives 3.16 percent against an exact 3.04, and it always errs on the conservative side. Reporting one standard error instead, 1.55 percent, describes a 68 percent interval rather than a 95 percent one.

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