A 40% Shot Beats a 70% Shot That Only Buys a Coin Flip
Going in and winning are different events: the short shot clears two hurdles and wins 0.35 of the time against the long shot's 0.40. The article prices how wrong the reflex is in two currencies, a break-even overtime rate of 4/7 and a break-even make rate of 80 percent at a coin-flip overtime. It also names the objective under which the reflex is right, since the short shot scores 1.40 expected points against 1.20 and still wins fewer games.