A call whose payoff is the square of the stock minus 100 does not start paying at 100, it starts paying at 10, because the square clears the strike exactly when the stock clears its square root. Placing the kink at the written strike prices the option at essentially zero on a stock at 12, when its real value is 53.8168. The closed form is ordinary Black-Scholes on the transformed asset with a growth term of 4 percent and a strike leg that still discounts at the riskless rate, and the value curve sits above intrinsic everywhere while being shallower than it at the spot in question.
A six-month at-the-money call on a 50 dollar share sheds a cent and a half a night to time decay, and its expected price tomorrow is higher anyway. The deterministic total differential gives minus 0.66 cents and predicts the opposite of the truth, while Ito's third term, half the gamma times the squared move, adds plus 1.13 and runs on variance rather than direction. Substituting the pricing equation for theta cancels that term exactly and leaves an expected return of the riskless rate plus elasticity times the premium, which is 35.54 percent a year here and turns negative below a real drift of 4.18.
A one-year at-the-money call on a 100 share with a 22 percent swing costs 8.7591 and carries 54.3795 dollars of share exposure, an elasticity of 6.2084. Multiply the share's market sensitivity of 1.10 by that and the call follows the market at 6.8292, so a share expected to earn 7.7 percent a year sits under a call expected to earn 47.8. The reflex answer, that an option price is a fair game with no drift, is true under the pricing measure and false under the one you live in, and both halves are measured here rather than asserted.
Daily, weekly and monthly returns give per-day variance estimates of 1.0000, 1.3225 and 1.4000, and the reflex is to average them into 1.2408, a figure no horizon produced. The variance ratio is a weighted sum of autocorrelations, so a forty percent overshoot at twenty periods measures dependence rather than noise, and the coefficient that reproduces it is 0.17554. With twenty years of daily data that ratio sits 4.6 standard errors above one and with five years only 2.3, which is why the number means nothing without the sample size attached.
Short a call struck at 100 with the share at 113.40 and two months left, the hedge holds 0.90028 shares; a month later at 112 it wants 0.94591, so you buy 4.56 per hundred. The reflex to sell is not a blunder, because freezing the clock and letting the same fall happen alone really does take the hedge to 0.87726, but the time effect is 2.7 times larger and points the other way. Holding the hedge constant traces the curve S(T) = X exp(d1 sigma root T minus half sigma squared T), which puts the break-even fall at 3.51 percent and, at expiry, at the strike itself.
A share at 100, a one-year call struck at 100, a zero rate and a twenty percent swing return 0.539828 and 0.460172. The first is the number of shares in the replicating portfolio, and reading it as the chance of finishing in the money hands you the complement of the right answer, since at the money with a zero rate the two numbers sum to one. The article carries the density identity that makes the share count exact, the measure under which the first number is a probability after all, and the four cents the straight line misses over a two-dollar move.
At the money the shorter maturity always wins, and a single negative derivative settles it for every volatility and every maturity: curvature runs 0.06907 against 0.02814 for one month against six. Ten percent out of the money the order reverses, 0.01854 against 0.02352, and the two curves cross 8.845 percent above the strike. What forces a crossover to exist is a conservation law, since every option in the family carries exactly the same total curvature and can only choose how to spread it.
A ticket paying a hundred dollars if a share finishes above its strike is squeezed between two ordinary call spreads at every width, so its value is pinned by prices already quoted with no distribution assumed anywhere. The limit is minus the derivative of the call price in the strike, which equals e to the minus rT times N(d2) because two density terms cancel exactly at every strike. Here that is 53.2325, against the 62.35 a real-world drift would give.
A share at 150, a call struck at 100, a year to run and no dividend: cashing out pays 50 while the option is worth 54.97. The floor S minus X e to the minus rT assumes no distribution at all, and it beats immediate exercise by exactly one year of interest on the strike, 4.8771. The article carries the cusp where the gap peaks at 10.4506, the shelf it settles onto far in the money, and the dividend condition that makes early exercise optimal after all.
Traders treat opposite signs for theta and gamma as a law of the desk, but it is the pricing equation rearranged, and the equation names its own exceptions. At a zero rate the identity is exact and unbreakable; with a positive rate the interest on the bond leg buys the exception, and a deep in-the-money put has theta +7.0053 and gamma +0.0040317 together. The change of variables to the heat equation shows where the interest was hiding.
More volatility is worth more is a theorem about convex payoffs, and a step function is not convex. An at-the-money cash-or-nothing digital falls from 46.02 to 42.07 cents when the swing doubles, and the sensitivity is positive only below X exp(-(r + sigma squared over two)(T-t)). The cap on the payoff is only half the explanation; the falling median is the other half.
The put reaches its strike more often, 0.3348 against 0.2821, and the call is still worth more, 4.2920 against 3.5891. The mechanism is not the unbounded-upside story, which would predict a gap at the money where put-call parity provably gives none; at a zero rate the 110 call equals 1.1 times a put struck at 90.909, and the put on offer is struck lower than that. The article also records two circulating claims that fail at these strikes, since the in-the-money chances at r = sigma^2/2 are 0.3168 and 0.2992 rather than equal, and the price ratio is 1.63 rather than 2.
At the money the log term in d1 vanishes and what remains is strictly positive for every non-negative rate and every volatility, so the delta always beats 0.5 and is 0.6554 at twenty percent. A square rather than a derivative gives the sharp floor: at six percent over a year the delta can never fall below 0.6355. The article also kills the sentence that sounds like a restatement of the answer, since the chance of finishing in the money falls to 0.4801 at forty percent volatility.
A contract struck at the current share price is worth roughly 0.3989 S sigma root T, so doubling the time to expiry multiplies the price by root two and takes 100 dollars to about 141 rather than 200. The exact ratio erf(s/2) over erf(s/(2 root 2)) is always strictly below root two because erf is concave, so 141.42 is a ceiling never reached. Strip out the strike condition and the rule collapses: the same doubling multiplies a strike 30 percent above spot by 4.19 and one 30 percent below by 1.01.
A three-month at-the-money call on a stock at 100 with 40% volatility is worth about eight dollars, and you can get there in two multiplications. The constant four tenths turns out to be the height of the normal bell at its peak, and the whole error of the mental rule is one rounding plus one cubic term. Scaling volatility linearly with time instead of with its square root gives ten dollars, which is 25.5% too high.
The hedge on a long call is the slope of its value, and a convex curve flattens as you slide left, so a falling share forces a smaller short and a smaller short is a purchase. No volatility, maturity or distribution enters that argument. The rebalance buys twenty shares, and the position gains 0.9824 per share on the fall.
Una acción con volatilidad cero, un call at the money, y la respuesta refleja — cero — que suspende entrevistas reales de trading. Un solo argumento de arbitraje la valora de tres maneras, y Black–Scholes lo confirma al final.