Jensen inequality

2 artículos

Probability & Statistics GradoAnálisis13 min

A Coin Flip Between Two Volatilities Is Enough to Make a Smile

Let a fair coin decide at the start of the year whether the share runs at 15 or 35 percent, price calls in that world, then read the volatilities back out with the constant-volatility formula: 28.43, 25.91, 24.97, 25.68 and 27.16 percent across five strikes. The floor sits at the money and below the 25 percent average of the two regimes, which one second derivative settles without any numerics. The usual explanation for the wings is refuted here, because the coin-flip world is less likely to clear 130 than a flat 25 percent and its option is still worth 27 percent more.

Probability & Statistics GradoExplicación10 min

The Average of e to the X Is Never One

Moving the average inside the exponential returns 1, and 1 happens to be the exact median and the exact geometric mean of e^X, which is why the mistake survives every re-check of the arithmetic. Completing the square in the exponent gives the true value e^(sigma squared over two), or 1.6487 at unit spread, because multiplying a Gaussian density by e^x slides its centre and scales its mass. Convexity settles the direction before any integral is set up, and on a heavy-tailed variable the quantity stops being finite at all.